Will North Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 19 h ago
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   Title

   Will North Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?

   Outcome

   North Carolina

   Rules

   If North Carolina has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia and a runoff is held, the margin from the December 1, 2026 runoff is used.

   If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.

   Close time

   Jan 3, 2027, 04:59 UTC

   Expiration

   Jan 10, 2027, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if all elections have been decided and margins calculated.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.