US midterms, Nov 3, 2026

Every House, Senate and governor market, with its rules edits

1,919 events and 5,527 open markets across Polymarket and Kalshi. None has had a rules edit since I started recording on Oct 31. Until Dec 1 I reread these markets on a separate round, so they're checked more often than the rest.

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Election week is when clarifications land. Recounts, runoffs, late calls and certification dates are the cases rules don't always cover. Watch the races you hold and you get the old and new words within one 5-minute check of an edit. Holding several?

Control of Congress

Races

60 of 383
RaceLeading outcomes, Yes priceRules editsWatch
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?: James Talarico
Kalshi · 2 markets · $4.5M 24h
70¢James Talarico
31¢Ken Paxton
0 Watch
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan?: Abdul El-Sayed
Kalshi · 2 markets · $1.8M 24h
76¢Abdul El-Sayed
25¢Mike Rogers
0 Watch
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · 2 markets · $1.8M 24h
79¢Democrats
21¢Republicans
0 Watch
Will Dan Osborn (as an independent)s win the Senate race in Nebraska?
Kalshi · 2 markets · $1.1M 24h
75¢Pete Ricketts
26¢Dan Osborn
0 Watch
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · 2 markets · $779k 24h
74¢Republicans
26¢an independent
0 Watch
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Alaska?: Democratic party
Kalshi · 2 markets · $754k 24h
71¢Democratic party
30¢Republican party
0 Watch
Texas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · 2 markets · $605k 24h
71¢Democrats
30¢Republicans
0 Watch
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?: Troy Jackson
Kalshi · 2 markets · $600k 24h
68¢Troy Jackson
33¢Susan Collins
0 Watch
Will Democratics win the Senate race in South Carolina?: Annie Andrews
Kalshi · 2 markets · $436k 24h
73¢Darline Graham
28¢Annie Andrews
0 Watch
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Kansas?: Adam Hamilton
Kalshi · 2 markets · $436k 24h
51¢Adam Hamilton
50¢Roger Marshall
0 Watch
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Florida?: Angie Nixon
Kalshi · 2 markets · $266k 24h
90¢Ashley Moody
12¢Angie Nixon
0 Watch
Will Texas Senate be James Talarico wins AND Maine Senate be Susan Collins wins for Nov 2026?: James Talarico and Susan Collins
Kalshi · 5 markets · $260k 24h
59¢James Talarico and Troy Jackson
18¢Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
0 Watch
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Iowa?: Josh Turek
Kalshi · 2 markets · $226k 24h
56¢Ashley Hinson
44¢Josh Turek
0 Watch
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · 2 markets · $223k 24h
74¢Democrats
27¢Republicans
0 Watch
Will Democratic (DFL)s win the Senate race in Minnesota?: Peggy Flanagan
Kalshi · 2 markets · $215k 24h
91¢Peggy Flanagan
9.4¢Michele Tafoya
0 Watch
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Georgia?: Jon Ossoff
Kalshi · 2 markets · $205k 24h
97¢Jon Ossoff
3.5¢Mike Collins
0 Watch
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?: Abdul El-Sayed
Kalshi · 2 markets · $151k 24h
75¢Abdul El-Sayed
26¢Mike Rogers
0 Watch
Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Roy Cooper
Kalshi · 2 markets · $148k 24h
97¢Roy Cooper
3.4¢Michael Whatley
0 Watch
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?: James Talarico, 1+ pts
Kalshi · 9 markets · $145k 24h
65¢James Talarico, 1+ pts
57¢James Talarico, 2+ pts
0 Watch
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio?: Sherrod Brown
Kalshi · 2 markets · $127k 24h
72¢Sherrod Brown
30¢Jon Husted
0 Watch
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
Kalshi · 10 markets · $120k 24h
28¢Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
22¢Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
0 Watch
Kansas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · 2 markets · $118k 24h
52¢Democrats
49¢Republicans
0 Watch
Will Texas Governor winner be Democratic party and Texas Senate winner be Democratic party?: Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico win
Kalshi · 4 markets · $114k 24h
43¢Greg Abbott and James Talarico win
33¢Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico win
0 Watch
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Mississippi?: Scott Colom
Kalshi · 2 markets · $104k 24h
89¢Cindy Hyde-Smith
12¢Scott Colom
0 Watch
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · 2 markets · $82k 24h
73¢Mary Peltola
28¢Dan Sullivan
0 Watch
Iowa Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · 2 markets · $82k 24h
55¢Republicans
45¢Democrats
0 Watch
Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Kalshi · 20 markets · $80k 24h
14¢Iowa
14¢Kansas
0 Watch
Florida Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · 2 markets · $67k 24h
91¢Republicans
9.5¢Democrats
0 Watch
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Cooper, 1+ pts
Kalshi · 12 markets · $65k 24h
96¢Cooper, 1+ pts
94¢Cooper, 4+ pts
0 Watch
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Idaho?: David Roth
Kalshi · 3 markets · $58k 24h
95¢Jim Risch
5.5¢Todd Achilles
0 Watch
Will Democratics win the Senate race in New Hampshire?: Chris Pappas
Kalshi · 2 markets · $56k 24h
93¢Chris Pappas
7.6¢John E. Sununu
0 Watch
Will Independents win the Senate race in Montana?: Seth Bodnar
Kalshi · 2 markets · $52k 24h
89¢Kurt Alme
12¢Seth Bodnar
0 Watch
Will Dan Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
Kalshi · 3 markets · $50k 24h
69¢Mary Peltola
31¢Dan Sullivan
0 Watch
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Louisiana?: Jamie Davis
Kalshi · 2 markets · $48k 24h
90¢Julia Letlow
11¢Jamie Davis
0 Watch
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · 2 markets · $46k 24h
75¢Republicans
26¢Democrats
0 Watch
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 1 percentage points?: El-Sayed, 1+ pts
Kalshi · 12 markets · $43k 24h
71¢El-Sayed, 1+ pts
64¢El-Sayed, 2+ pts
0 Watch
Maine Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · 2 markets · $43k 24h
70¢Democrats
31¢Republicans
0 Watch
Minnesota Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · 2 markets · $41k 24h
93¢Democrats
7¢Republicans
0 Watch
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
Polymarket · 3 markets · $33k 24h
91¢there be no Hormuz agreement
7.4¢there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats
0 Watch
Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election?: Susan Collins
Kalshi · 2 markets · $31k 24h
68¢Troy Jackson
33¢Susan Collins
0 Watch
Will the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 0% and 2%?: James Talarico, 0-2%
Kalshi · 9 markets · $30k 24h
19¢James Talarico, 0-2%
19¢James Talarico, 2-4%
0 Watch
Idaho Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · 2 markets · $30k 24h
97¢Republicans
3.2¢Todd Achilles
0 Watch
Will Brian Bengss win the Senate race in South Dakota?
Kalshi · 3 markets · $30k 24h
94¢Mike Rounds
6¢Brian Bengs
0 Watch
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Arkansas?: Hallie Shoffner
Kalshi · 2 markets · $29k 24h
94¢Tom Cotton
6¢Hallie Shoffner
0 Watch
South Dakota Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · 3 markets · $29k 24h
94¢Republicans
6.1¢Brian Bengs
0 Watch
Montana Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · 3 markets · $28k 24h
91¢Republicans
9.9¢an Independent
0 Watch
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Florida be at least 10 percentage points?: Moody, 10+ pts
Kalshi · 13 markets · $22k 24h
80¢Moody, 2+ pts
72¢Moody, 3+ pts
0 Watch
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 10 percentage points?: Ossoff, 10+ pts
Kalshi · 11 markets · $22k 24h
94¢Ossoff, 3+ pts
91¢Ossoff, 5+ pts
0 Watch
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · 10 markets · $21k 24h
30¢Democratic Party candidate
26¢Democratic Party candidate
0 Watch
Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Polymarket · 6 markets · $19k 24h
30¢Democratic Party candidate
23¢Democratic Party candidate
0 Watch
Who will win the Texas Senate?: Democratic party
Kalshi · 2 markets · $18k 24h
97¢Republican party
4.5¢Democratic party
0 Watch
Who will win the Alaska State Senate?: Democratic party
Kalshi · 2 markets · $16k 24h
98¢Republican party
2.5¢Democratic party
0 Watch
Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?: Yes
Kalshi · 1 market · $15k 24h
61¢Yes
0
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Graham, 1+ pts
Kalshi · 9 markets · $15k 24h
67¢Graham, 1+ pts
58¢Graham, 2+ pts
0 Watch
Maine Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Polymarket · 6 markets · $14k 24h
34¢Democratic Party candidate
22¢Democratic Party candidate
0 Watch
Michigan Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · 6 markets · $12k 24h
28¢Democratic Party candidate
22¢Democratic Party candidate
0 Watch
Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · 10 markets · $12k 24h
24¢Republican Party candidate
22¢Republican Party candidate
0 Watch
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Kansas be at least 1 percentage points?: Marshall, 1+ pts
Kalshi · 5 markets · $12k 24h
46¢Marshall, 1+ pts
34¢Marshall, 3+ pts
0 Watch
Will Susan Collins outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine?: Yes
Kalshi · 1 market · $12k 24h
57¢Yes
0
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Massachusetts?: Ed Markey
Kalshi · 2 markets · $11k 24h
99¢Ed Markey
1.4¢John Deaton
0 Watch
Sorted by 24h volume. Prices are from my last read of each market; this table was rebuilt .

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