Will the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 0% and 2%?: James Talarico, 0-2%

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 18 h ago
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   Title

   Will the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 0% and 2%?

   Outcome

   James Talarico, 0-2%

   Rules

   If the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is within 0% to 2%, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   The margin of victory is the vote share received by James Talarico minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind James Talarico if James Talarico wins, or the candidate that finishes first if James Talarico loses. If James Talarico wins, the margin will be positive; if James Talarico loses, the margin will be negative; if James Talarico ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

   Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If James Talarico runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.

   Close time

   Nov 3, 2027, 14:00 UTC

   Expiration

   Nov 3, 2027, 14:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:22 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.