Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 2% and 4%?: Ken Paxton, 2-4%

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 19 h ago
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   Title

   Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 2% and 4%?

   Outcome

   Ken Paxton, 2-4%

   Rules

   If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is within 2% to 4%, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   The margin of victory is the vote share received by Ken Paxton minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses. If Ken Paxton wins, the margin will be positive; if Ken Paxton loses, the margin will be negative; if Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

   Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.

   Close time

   Nov 3, 2027, 14:00 UTC

   Expiration

   Nov 3, 2027, 14:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:22 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.