Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 5 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 5+ pts

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 19 h ago
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   Title

   Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 5 percentage points?

   Outcome

   Ken Paxton, 5+ pts

   Rules

   If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

   For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.

   Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed.

   If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

   Close time

   Nov 3, 2027, 15:00 UTC

   Expiration

   Nov 3, 2027, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

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