Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?: Before 2027

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 20 h ago
   Read the current rules

   Title

   Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?

   Outcome

   Before 2027

   Rules

   If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   A Millennium Prize Problem counts as solved on the first date that, by Expiration, remains unretracted and either:

   A complete proof, disproof, or counterexample addressing the problem as originally formulated by the Clay Mathematics Institute is published in a reputable peer-reviewed mathematics or scientific journal.
   CMI or another recognized academic governing or recognition body officially states that the problem has been resolved by reference to a specific written work.
   At least two Source Agencies themselves report that the problem has been proven, disproven, or otherwise resolved by reference to a specific publicly available written work.

   A preprint, announcement, blog post, conference presentation, technical report, or machine-checked formalization does NOT by itself constitute a solution, but may be the written work relied upon for official recognition or qualifying Source Agency reporting. Award of a Millennium Prize by CMI is NOT required.

   Partial results, special cases, unrelated reformulations, results conditional on unproven assumptions, and findings that the problem is independent of or undecidable within its framework do NOT count. The result must establish the truth or falsity of the problem as originally formulated.

   A solution is attributed to AI lab when Source Agencies report that AI lab, its personnel, or an AI system developed and operated by it produced the solution in whole or substantial part, and the lab or system is credited as an author, contributor, or producer. Collaborative work qualifies; independent third-party use of the lab's publicly available model or product without such participation or credit does NOT.

   Each Millennium Prize Problem counts at most once. Problems solved before time period do NOT count. A purported solution that is retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, rescinded, disavowed, or reported to contain an unresolved identified error before Expiration does NOT count.

   Close time

   Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC

   Expiration

   Jan 7, 2027, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   If an event described in the Payout Criterion occurs, expiration will be moved to an earlier date and time in accordance with Rule 7.2.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.