Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be above 12%?: Dan Sullivan, ≥12%

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 3 days ago
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   Title

   Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be above 12%?

   Outcome

   Dan Sullivan, ≥12%

   Rules

   If the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election falls within 12% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   Important information: the margin shall be calculated using the results from the final round of tabulation.

   "Dan Sullivan" refers to Daniel S. Sullivan, the incumbent Senator.

   Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Dan Sullivan runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Dan Sullivan will be summed.

   If Dan Sullivan wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Dan Sullivan loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Dan Sullivan ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Dan Sullivan is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

   Close time

   Jun 2, 2027, 14:00 UTC

   Expiration

   Jun 2, 2027, 14:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.