Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 1AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?: Before 1AM Nov 4

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 35 h ago
   Read the current rules

   Title

   Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 1AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?

   Outcome

   Before 1AM Nov 4

   Rules

   If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 1AM ET on Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, or equivalent clear language indicating the outlet has determined the winner. The call must appear on one of the outlet's primary platforms (main website, television broadcast, or official social media if that is their primary medium) and not be prefaced with qualifiers suggesting uncertainty such as "appears to," "likely to," "probably," or "may have." The relevant time is when the call first becomes publicly visible on the outlet's platform, not when it may have been written, decided internally, or prepared for publication. If the call is later retracted, the market nonetheless resolves to Yes based on the initial call time. Preliminary exit polls, reporting of other outlets' calls, conditional statements, opinion pieces, and technical glitches do not qualify as definitive calls.

   Close time

   Nov 4, 2026, 06:00 UTC

   Expiration

   Nov 4, 2026, 06:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the Associated Press definitively calls the 2026 U.S. House majority.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.