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Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?: Before 2027

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Yes price
—
read on the next check
24h volume
—
contracts, $1 each at most
Ends
Jan 1, 2027
Recorded changes
0
tracked since Oct 31

Yes price and rules edits

Price history from Kalshi's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.
Yes price

Resolution

Trading
Closes Jan 1, 2027
Closed
Kalshi determines the result
Determined
Settles after a short timer
Settled
Paid out

Checking the live resolution stage with Kalshi…

Rules history

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  1. 1
    Version 1, currentsince I first saw it,
    Read the current rules
    Title
    Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?
    Outcome
    Before 2027
    Rules

    If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    More rules

    The model must be top-ranked, alone, on the Rank metric (unless multiple Chinese models are #1) to resolve the market to Yes. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.

    Close time
    Jan 1, 2027, 15:00 UTC
    Expiration
    Jan 1, 2027, 15:00 UTC
    Early close

    This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

  2. 1
    First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

    Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.

Clarifications posted elsewhere

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