What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 31, 2026?: Magnitude of at least 5.4

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 2 days ago
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   Title

   What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 31, 2026?

   Outcome

   Magnitude of at least 5.4

   Rules

   If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 31, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.

   Close time

   Oct 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC

   Expiration

   Nov 30, 2026, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:22 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.