Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Canada and the European Union sign or formally adopt an agreement establishing Canada as an EU associate member or an equivalent new formal institutional status before Jan 1, 2028?: Before 2028

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 31 h ago
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   Title

   Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Canada and the European Union sign or formally adopt an agreement establishing Canada as an EU associate member or an equivalent new formal institutional status before Jan 1, 2028?

   Outcome

   Before 2028

   Rules

   If Canada and the European Union sign or formally adopt an agreement establishing Canada as an EU associate member or an equivalent new formal institutional status after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

   An equivalent status must be expressly presented by Canada and the EU as the institutional arrangement contemplated by the EU's Canadian associate-membership proposal. Both sides must sign or formally adopt the same agreement. Full EU membership, ratification, and entry into force are not required. Proposals, invitations, statements of intent, negotiations, or action by only one side do not qualify. Existing or sector-specific trade, defence, research, or mobility arrangements alone do not qualify.

   Close time

   Jan 1, 2028, 04:59 UTC

   Expiration

   Jan 8, 2028, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.