Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 3 days ago
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   Title

   Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Nov 1, 2026?

   Outcome

   Before Nov 1, 2026

   Rules

   If Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   An agreement is concluded if either:

   it is signed or formally executed by authorized officials of both governments, or
   both governments announce that negotiations have concluded and that the agreed tariff changes are being implemented, or those tariff changes take legal effect in both countries under the agreement.

   An agreement can be concluded even if individual sectors remain subject to further negotiation, and regardless of when the agreed changes take effect.

   The following do NOT count:

   Anything announced before Issuance, including the announcements of August 18 and 19, 2026 of a deal reached, agreed in principle, or pending final documentation, and any draft agreement reported before Issuance
   An agreement announced as reached by only one of the two governments
   A framework, term sheet, memorandum of understanding or joint communique that both governments describe as still subject to negotiation of its core terms
   A temporary tariff pause, suspension or deadline extension not accompanied by a concluded agreement
   Continued or resumed negotiations, however described
   Action taken unilaterally by one government

   Only reporting from a Source Agency qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

   Close time

   Nov 1, 2026, 04:59 UTC

   Expiration

   Nov 8, 2026, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.