Will the Bank of England raise the Bank Rate before 2027?

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 3 days ago
   Read the current rules

   Title

   Will the Bank of England raise the Bank Rate before 2027?

   Outcome

   Bank of England

   Rules

   If the Bank of England raising the Bank Rate is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   A rate increase qualifies whether announced at a scheduled or unscheduled policy meeting. Forward guidance, speeches, projections, dissents, meeting minutes, analyst forecasts, or market-implied probabilities do not qualify unless the central bank officially announces an increase in the applicable policy rate.

   The market resolves based on the official announcement date of the rate increase, not the effective date, unless the announcement does not specify a decision date, in which case the effective date will be used.

   If the named central bank changes its monetary policy framework, renames its policy rate, or replaces the applicable policy rate before Jan. 1, 2027, the Exchange will use the central bank’s new main policy interest rate that is most directly comparable to the rate specified above.

   Close time

   Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC

   Expiration

   Jan 8, 2027, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.