Will Texas US Senate have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Alaska US Senate and Texas US Senate?

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 3 days ago
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   Title

   Will Texas US Senate have the smallest margin of victory in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Alaska US Senate and Texas US Senate?

   Outcome

   Texas US Senate

   Rules

   If Texas US Senate has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Alaska US Senate and Texas US Senate as of Dec 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in vote share (expressed as percentage) between first and second place finishers, using total votes cast as the denominator. For ranked-choice elections, the margin is the final-round vote difference between the first- and second-place candidates (the first round if a candidate wins a majority outright) divided by total votes cast in that election, including ballots exhausted before the final round. If official results aren't available by the deadline, preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95% of expected vote are used. If multiple elections have identical margins and relevant options are listed, each tied option resolves to Yes at $1.00 divided by the number of tied options.

   Close time

   Dec 7, 2026, 15:00 UTC

   Expiration

   Dec 7, 2026, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if all election results are certified.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.