When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)?: Before Jan 1, 2028

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 22 h ago
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   Title

   When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)?

   Outcome

   Before Jan 1, 2028

   Rules

   If the FDA approves retatrutide (LY3437943) for marketing before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   An approval is defined as:

   For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
   For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
   For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
   For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application

   The following constitute approvals that trigger the Payout Criterion:

   Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit)
   Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints)
   Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS)
   Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs

   The following do NOT constitute approvals:

   Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
   Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
   Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
   FDA requests for additional information or studies
   Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
   Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
   Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
   Approval only for export or for use outside the United States

   If the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter before Jan 1, 2028, the market will resolve to No unless the FDA subsequently approves retatrutide (LY3437943) after addressing the CRL concerns and before Jan 1, 2028.

   If the FDA convenes an Advisory Committee that votes against approval but the FDA approves retatrutide (LY3437943) anyway before Jan 1, 2028, the market will resolve to Yes.

   If retatrutide (LY3437943) receives accelerated approval that is later withdrawn before Jan 1, 2028, the market will resolve based on whether the initial accelerated approval occurred after Issuance (Yes), regardless of the subsequent withdrawal.

   If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before FDA action and before Jan 1, 2028, the market will resolve to No immediately.

   Close time

   Jan 1, 2028, 04:59 UTC

   Expiration

   Jan 8, 2028, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.