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Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q4 2026?: Above 2.5%

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Yes price
—
read on the next check
24h volume
—
contracts, $1 each at most
Ends
Jan 28, 2027
Recorded changes
0
tracked since Oct 31

Yes price and rules edits

Price history from Kalshi's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.
Yes price

Resolution

Trading
Closes Jan 28, 2027
Closed
Kalshi determines the result
Determined
Settles after a short timer
Settled
Paid out

Checking the live resolution stage with Kalshi…

Rules history

removedadded
  1. 1
    Version 1, currentsince I first saw it,
    Read the current rules
    Title
    Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q4 2026?
    Outcome
    Above 2.5%
    Rules

    If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 2.5, then the market resolves to Yes.

    More rules

    The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q4 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

    Close time
    Jan 28, 2027, 13:29 UTC
    Expiration
    Apr 29, 2027, 15:00 UTC
    Early close

    allowed

  2. 1
    First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

    Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.

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