Will the margin of victory for Roger Marshall in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas be between 2% and 4%?: Roger Marshall, 2-4%

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 2 days ago
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   Title

   Will the margin of victory for Roger Marshall in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas be between 2% and 4%?

   Outcome

   Roger Marshall, 2-4%

   Rules

   If the margin of victory for Roger Marshall in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas is within 2% to 4%, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   The margin of victory is the vote share received by Roger Marshall minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Roger Marshall if Roger Marshall wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Roger Marshall loses. If Roger Marshall wins, the margin will be positive; if Roger Marshall loses, the margin will be negative; if Roger Marshall ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

   Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Roger Marshall runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.

   Close time

   Nov 3, 2027, 14:00 UTC

   Expiration

   Nov 3, 2027, 14:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:22 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.