Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 4 and 6%?: Democrats, 4 to 6%

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 28 h ago
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   Title

   Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 4 and 6%?

   Outcome

   Democrats, 4 to 6%

   Rules

   If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 4 and 6 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.

   Close time

   Nov 3, 2027, 13:59 UTC

   Expiration

   Feb 1, 2028, 14:00 UTC

   Early close

   allowed

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

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