Will Russia name the pathogen behind the Irkutsk plague lab death before Nov 1, 2026?: Yes

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 31 h ago
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   Title

   Will Russia name the pathogen behind the Irkutsk plague lab death before Nov 1, 2026?

   Outcome

   Yes

   Rules

   If Rospotrebnadzor announces the identification of a specific pathogen as the cause of the fatal pneumonia of an Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute employee before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   Only an announcement by Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public health agency, including its Irkutsk Oblast office, counts. It must name a specific organism, such as Yersinia pestis or another bacterium, virus or fungus identified by genus or species, as the cause of the employee's pneumonia or death.

   A generic description such as "bacterial," "viral" or "undetermined etiology" does NOT count
   Naming a pathogen as suspected, under investigation or not ruled out does NOT count
   Ruling out a pathogen without naming the cause does NOT count

   Close time

   Nov 1, 2026, 03:59 UTC

   Expiration

   Nov 8, 2026, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.