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Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Feb 3, 2027?: Before Feb 3, 2027

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Yes price
—
read on the next check
24h volume
—
contracts, $1 each at most
Ends
Feb 3, 2027
Recorded changes
0
tracked since Oct 31

Yes price and rules edits

Price history from Kalshi's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.
Yes price

Resolution

Trading
Closes Feb 3, 2027
Closed
Kalshi determines the result
Determined
Settles after a short timer
Settled
Paid out

Checking the live resolution stage with Kalshi…

Rules history

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  1. 1
    Version 1, currentsince I first saw it,
    Read the current rules
    Title
    Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Feb 3, 2027?
    Outcome
    Before Feb 3, 2027
    Rules

    If the Knesset approves a new government in a vote of confidence before Feb 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    More rules

    The President tasking a candidate with forming a government, any extension of that mandate, a signed coalition agreement, an announced agreement in principle between parties, an announcement or scheduling of a confidence vote, and the continued operation of the outgoing caretaker government do NOT qualify. Neither does the swearing-in of individual ministers before the Knesset has voted.

    For purposes of this market, only the Knesset's approval of a new government in a vote of confidence qualifies.

    The following do NOT qualify:

    Preliminary discussions, negotiations, or expressions of interest without commitment
    Conditional agreements contingent on specified circumstances
    Statements by opposition parties or unauthorized representatives
    Leaked documents or unofficial reports not confirmed by government sources
    Proposals or draft legislation without formal approval or adoption
    Retraction or reversal of a previously announced commitment

    Where the statutory mandate periods expire without the Knesset having approved a new government, every market resolves to NO, including where that triggers a fresh election.

    Close time
    Feb 3, 2027, 04:59 UTC
    Expiration
    Feb 10, 2027, 15:00 UTC
    Early close

    This market will close and expire early if the event described in the Payout Criterion occurs.

  2. 1
    First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

    Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.

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