Will exactly 1 Senate Democrat lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 1

Resolution

Checking the live resolution stage with Kalshi…

1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 2 days ago
   Read the current rules

   Title

   Will exactly 1 Senate Democrat lose re-election in 2026?

   Outcome

   Exactly 1

   Rules

   If exactly 1 member of the Senate Democrats loses re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election.

   Close time

   Dec 31, 2026, 15:00 UTC

   Expiration

   Jan 7, 2027, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if all relevant elections are completed and certified.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.