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Will the margin of victory for Eric Jones in CA-04 be at least 5 percentage points?: Eric Jones, 5+ pts

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Yes price
33¢
checked
24h volume
$0
contracts, $1 each at most
Ends
Nov 3, 2027
Recorded changes
0
tracked since Oct 31

Yes price and rules edits

Price history from Kalshi's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.
Yes price

Resolution

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Closes Nov 3, 2027
Closed
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Rules history

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  1. 1
    Version 1, currentsince I first saw it,
    Read the current rules
    Title
    Will the margin of victory for Eric Jones in CA-04 be at least 5 percentage points?
    Outcome
    Eric Jones, 5+ pts
    Rules

    If Eric Jones wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

    More rules

    The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

    For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Eric Jones minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Eric Jones if Eric Jones wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Eric Jones loses.

    Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Eric Jones runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Eric Jones will be summed.

    If Eric Jones wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Eric Jones loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Eric Jones ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Eric Jones is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

    Close time
    Nov 3, 2027, 14:00 UTC
    Expiration
    Nov 3, 2027, 14:00 UTC
    Early close

    This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

  2. 1
    First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

    Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.

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