Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 5 percentage points?: Mike Thompson, 5+ pts

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 2 days ago
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   Title

   Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 5 percentage points?

   Outcome

   Mike Thompson, 5+ pts

   Rules

   If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

   For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Mike Thompson minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Mike Thompson if Mike Thompson wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Mike Thompson loses.

   Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Mike Thompson runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Mike Thompson will be summed.

   If Mike Thompson wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Mike Thompson loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Mike Thompson ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Mike Thompson is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

   Close time

   Nov 3, 2027, 14:00 UTC

   Expiration

   Nov 3, 2027, 14:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.