RulesWatch
Dashboard
KalshiPoliticsTrading

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 15 percentage points?: El-Sayed, 15+ pts

Open on Kalshi
Share
Post on X
Badge and embed Download history (JSON)
Yes price
1.7¢
checked
24h volume
$1.1k
contracts, $1 each at most
Ends
Nov 3, 2027
Recorded changes
0
tracked since Oct 31

Yes price and rules edits

Price history from Kalshi's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.
Yes price

Resolution

Trading
Closes Nov 3, 2027
Closed
Kalshi determines the result
Determined
Settles after a short timer
Settled
Paid out

Checking the live resolution stage with Kalshi…

Rules history

removedadded
  1. 1
    Version 1, currentsince I first saw it,
    Read the current rules
    Title
    Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 15 percentage points?
    Outcome
    El-Sayed, 15+ pts
    Rules

    If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan by 15 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

    More rules

    The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

    For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.

    Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.

    If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

    Close time
    Nov 3, 2027, 15:00 UTC
    Expiration
    Nov 3, 2027, 15:00 UTC
    Early close

    This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

  2. 1
    First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

    Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.

Clarifications posted elsewhere

Kalshi sometimes explains a ruling on X or in support replies without editing the contract. No API carries those. Link one here and everyone watching gets an alert.

No links added.