Will Input Token Price of Claude Opus 4.8 be at or below $4/MTok in 2026?: $4/MTok or below

Resolution

Checking the live resolution stage with Kalshi…

1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 25 h ago
   Read the current rules

   Title

   Will Input Token Price of Claude Opus 4.8 be at or below $4/MTok in 2026?

   Outcome

   $4/MTok or below

   Rules

   If the Input Token Price of Claude Opus 4.8 on https://claude.com/pricing#api is at or below $4 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   The market resolves based on the price listed of the Input Token Price for Claude Opus 4.8 in 2026 on https://claude.com/pricing#api. The price must be explicitly displayed on the API pricing section of that page. If the product is renamed or succeeded, the closest equivalent product controls. If the page is unavailable on the expiration date, the last available published price will be used. Prices are in USD per MTok. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution — only the standard listed API price applies.

   If no data is available by the Expiration Date, the last available price for Claude Opus 4.8 in 2026 will be used. If no prior value is available, all strikes shall resolve to “No”.

   Close time

   Apr 1, 2027, 15:00 UTC

   Expiration

   Apr 1, 2027, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the price data is released.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.