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Will there be exactly 2 Fed rate hikes in 2026?: Exactly 2

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Yes price
—
read on the next check
24h volume
—
contracts, $1 each at most
Ends
Jan 3, 2027
Recorded changes
0
tracked since Oct 31

Yes price and rules edits

Price history from Kalshi's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.
Yes price

Resolution

Trading
Closes Jan 3, 2027
Closed
Kalshi determines the result
Determined
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Settled
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Rules history

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  1. 1
    Version 1, currentsince I first saw it,
    Read the current rules
    Title
    Will there be exactly 2 Fed rate hikes in 2026?
    Outcome
    Exactly 2
    Rules

    If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes.

    More rules

    Please note the following definition of a "rate hike": A single ‘hike’ is considered an increase in the upper bound by at least 1 basis point and up to and including 25 basis points. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 26-50 basis points hike is considered two hikes. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 51-75 basis points is considered three hikes.

    Close time
    Jan 3, 2027, 15:00 UTC
    Expiration
    Jan 3, 2027, 15:00 UTC
    Early close

    allowed

  2. 1
    First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

    Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.

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