Yes price
—
read on the next check
24h volume
—
contracts, $1 each at most
Ends
Jan 31, 2027
Recorded changes
0
tracked since Oct 31
Yes price and rules edits
Price history from Kalshi's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.
Yes price
Resolution
Trading
Closes Jan 31, 2027
Closed
Kalshi determines the result
Determined
Settles after a short timer
Settled
Paid out
Checking the live resolution stage with Kalshi…
Rules history
- 1Version 1, currentsince I first saw it,
Read the current rules
- Title
- Will there be a recession in 2026?
- Outcome
- Starts
- Rules
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
- More rules
The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.
- Close time
- Jan 31, 2027, 13:25 UTC
- Expiration
- Feb 7, 2027, 15:00 UTC
- Early close
If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.
- 1First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC
Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.
Clarifications posted elsewhere
Kalshi sometimes explains a ruling on X or in support replies without editing the contract. No API carries those. Link one here and everyone watching gets an alert.
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