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Will there be a recession in 2027?: Yes

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Yes price
—
read on the next check
24h volume
—
contracts, $1 each at most
Ends
Jan 31, 2028
Recorded changes
0
tracked since Oct 31

Yes price and rules edits

Price history from Kalshi's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.
Yes price

Resolution

Trading
Closes Jan 31, 2028
Closed
Kalshi determines the result
Determined
Settles after a short timer
Settled
Paid out

Checking the live resolution stage with Kalshi…

Rules history

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  1. 1
    Version 1, currentsince I first saw it,
    Read the current rules
    Title
    Will there be a recession in 2027?
    Outcome
    Yes
    Rules

    If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.

    More rules

    For the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.

    GDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter.

    The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.

    Close time
    Jan 31, 2028, 13:25 UTC
    Expiration
    Feb 7, 2028, 15:00 UTC
    Early close

    If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

  2. 1
    First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

    Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.

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