Will Tesla robotaxi be offered to the general public in Arizona before Jan 1, 2027?

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 27 h ago
   Read the current rules

   Title

   Will Tesla robotaxi be offered to the general public in Arizona before Jan 1, 2027?

   Outcome

   Arizona

   Rules

   If Tesla robotaxi service is offered to the general public in Arizona before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   For "offered to": Tesla has launched a robotaxi service in Arizona that satisfies ALL of the following criteria:

   The service allows members of the general public to request rides through a publicly accessible application or platform (not limited to Tesla employees, beta testers, or invite-only participants)
   The vehicles operate without any human driver or safety monitor physically present in the driver's seat who is actively controlling the vehicle during normal operation
   The service charges fares or fees for rides (free promotional rides alone do not qualify)

   For "removed from": Tesla has discontinued, suspended, or withdrawn a previously operational robotaxi service in Arizona that met all the "offered to" criteria above, where:

   The service is no longer accepting new ride requests from the general public for any period of time as a result of a decision by Tesla to suspend operations in the area, and such suspension is not explicitly characterized as temporary (e.g., due to weather, maintenance, or system upgrades). The Payout Criterion is not satisfied by short-term service interruptions that are clearly communicated as temporary or expected to resume.

   The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:

   If a government orders Tesla to cease ongoing services but they do not comply, then the market does not resolve to Yes
   Services limited to Tesla employees, contractors, or their guests
   Beta tests, pilot programs, or demonstrations
   Services requiring special invitations, access codes, or pre-approval to use
   Vehicles with human safety drivers, monitors, or operators in any seat of the vehicle who can take control
   Temporary suspensions due to weather or technical issues
   Services operating only with remote human teleoperators controlling each vehicle continuously
   Test fleets that are not charging fares to the general public
   Announcements of future launches without actual operational service

   Close time

   Jan 31, 2027, 15:00 UTC

   Expiration

   Jan 31, 2027, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

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