Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be between 2.0°C and 2.4°C?: 2.0°C to 2.4°C

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 2 days ago
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   Title

   Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be between 2.0°C and 2.4°C?

   Outcome

   2.0°C to 2.4°C

   Rules

   If the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season is between 2.0 and 2.4°C, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   The peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary). For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value. The latest Expiration Date shall be one week after the Source Agency publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period falling within the time period. However, if the peak RONI value necessary to determine the Market Outcome can be conclusively established prior to that date (e.g., the season has formally ended and all relevant values are final), expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time.

   Close time

   Aug 15, 2027, 14:00 UTC

   Expiration

   Aug 15, 2027, 14:00 UTC

   Early close

   allowed

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.