Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Russian-origin diesel fuel is imported into the United States before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 31 h ago
   Read the current rules

   Title

   Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Russian-origin diesel fuel is imported into the United States before Jan 1, 2027?

   Outcome

   Before Jan 1, 2027

   Rules

   If Russian-origin diesel fuel is imported into the United States after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

   Russian-origin diesel fuel is diesel fuel produced in Russia. Diesel fuel refined in another country from Russian crude oil is not Russian-origin diesel fuel.

   Diesel fuel is imported into the United States when it is physically delivered to a U.S. port, or otherwise into U.S. territory, for commercial or government use within the United States. An import counts regardless of whether it is made under the Oct 9, 2026 agreement between the United States and Russia, General License 135 or any other authorization.

   The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:
   A purchase, contract, loading or voyage of Russian-origin diesel fuel to the United States, before it is actually delivered
   Diesel fuel carried as a vessel's own fuel
   Diesel fuel held in bond for re-export or passing through the United States in transit to another country
   An announcement, agreement or license permitting imports, before diesel fuel is actually delivered

   Close time

   Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC

   Expiration

   Jan 8, 2027, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.