Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 31 h ago
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   Title

   Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028?

   Outcome

   Before Jan 1, 2028

   Rules

   If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2028 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date.

   A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.

   Close time

   Jan 1, 2028, 04:59 UTC

   Expiration

   Jan 8, 2028, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the U.S. State Department issues a qualifying advisory for the specific country.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.