Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 30% on Jan 1, 2027?: 30% or above

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 2 days ago
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   Title

   Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 30% on Jan 1, 2027?

   Outcome

   30% or above

   Rules

   If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 30%, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.

   Examples (for date = Jan 1, 2026):

   India: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50%
   China: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = 20%
   European Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326)
   Falkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)

   Close time

   Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC

   Expiration

   Jan 8, 2027, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   allowed

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.