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What will be the top AI model on Oct 31, 2026?: gemini-4-argon-high

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Yes price
—
read on the next check
24h volume
—
contracts, $1 each at most
Ends
Oct 31, 2026
Recorded changes
0
tracked since Oct 31

Yes price and rules edits

Price history from Kalshi's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.
Yes price

Resolution

Trading
Closes Oct 31, 2026
Closed
Kalshi determines the result
Determined
Settles after a short timer
Settled
Paid out

Checking the live resolution stage with Kalshi…

Rules history

removedadded
  1. 1
    Version 1, currentsince I first saw it,
    Read the current rules
    Title
    What will be the top AI model on Oct 31, 2026?
    Outcome
    gemini-4-argon-high
    Rules

    If gemini-4-argon-high is the top-ranked AI model on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

    More rules

    If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.

    Close time
    Oct 31, 2026, 14:00 UTC
    Expiration
    Oct 31, 2026, 14:00 UTC
    Early close

    allowed

  2. 1
    First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

    Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.

Clarifications posted elsewhere

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