Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2027 be above 4.5%?: Above 4.5%

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 2 days ago
   Read the current rules

   Title

   Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2027 be above 4.5%?

   Outcome

   Above 4.5%

   Rules

   If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2027 is above 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   “Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released. It does not refer to the annual average, the fourth-quarter average, the highest unemployment rate reported during the year, or the latest unemployment rate available as of December 31.

   The Expiration Value is the first non-preliminary seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for December 2027. Values will be compared as published without rounding. Later revisions will not affect the outcome.

   Close time

   Jan 7, 2028, 13:29 UTC

   Expiration

   Jan 14, 2028, 13:30 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.