Will U.S. real average hourly earnings growth (all private employees, YoY, seasonally adjusted) for December 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0%

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 2 days ago
   Read the current rules

   Title

   Will U.S. real average hourly earnings growth (all private employees, YoY, seasonally adjusted) for December 2026 be above 0.0%?

   Outcome

   Above 0.0%

   Rules

   If the seasonally adjusted 12-month percent change in U.S. real average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls for December 2026 is strictly above

   0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   The Underlying is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in real average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls from December 2025 to December 2026, as reported in BLS’s Real Earnings release for December 2026. This measure adjusts hourly earnings for inflation using CPI-U.

   The first published percentage change will be used, including if designated preliminary, at the precision reported by BLS. Subsequent revisions will not affect resolution. A reported change of 0.0% or less resolves No. The market measures December-to-December growth, not the change in annual averages.

   Close time

   Jan 13, 2027, 13:29 UTC

   Expiration

   Jan 20, 2027, 13:30 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.