Will the unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24 (seasonally adjusted) for 2026 fall below 7.5%?: Yes

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 3 days ago
   Read the current rules

   Title

   Will the unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24 (seasonally adjusted) for 2026 fall below 7.5%?

   Outcome

   Yes

   Rules

   If, in any of the remaining Employment Situation releases published after Issuance in calendar year 2026, the unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24, seasonally adjusted, is below 7.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

   More rules

   This market covers only Employment Situation releases scheduled to occur in calendar year 2026 and does not include the release scheduled for January 2027, even though that release may report December 2026 data.

   The relevant statistic is the BLS unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24, seasonally adjusted, series LNS14024887. FRED series LNS14024887 may be used as a reference source.

   Close time

   Dec 4, 2026, 13:29 UTC

   Expiration

   Dec 11, 2026, 15:00 UTC

   Early close

   This market will close and expire early if a covered Employment Situation release reports that the unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24, seasonally adjusted, is below 7.5%.

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.