Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 29 h ago
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   Question

   Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

   Rules

   This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

   The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

   If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

   Resolution source

   https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef

   End date

   Jan 8, 2027, 04:59 UTC

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.