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Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

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Yes price
2.8¢
checked
24h volume
$24k
dollars traded
Ends
Jan 1, 2027
Recorded changes
0
tracked since Oct 31

Yes price and rules edits

Price history from Polymarket's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.
Yes price

Resolution

Trading
Ends Jan 1, 2027
Ended
Waiting for a proposal
Proposed
2 h to dispute on UMA
Resolved
Paid out

Checking the live resolution stage with Polymarket…

Rules history

removedadded
  1. 1
    Version 1, currentsince I first saw it,
    Read the current rules
    Question
    Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
    Rules

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

    The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto

    If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.

    Resolution source
    https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
    End date
    Jan 1, 2027, 05:00 UTC
  2. 1
    First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

    Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.

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