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Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?

Part of China Annual GDP Growth 2026
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Yes price
96¢
checked
24h volume
$0
dollars traded
Ends
Jan 31, 2027
Recorded changes
0
tracked since Oct 31

Yes price and rules edits

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Yes price

Resolution

Trading
Ends Jan 31, 2027
Ended
Waiting for a proposal
Proposed
2 h to dispute on UMA
Resolved
Paid out

Checking the live resolution stage with Polymarket…

Rules history

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  1. 1
    Version 1, currentsince I first saw it,
    Read the current rules
    Question
    Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
    Rules

    This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.

    The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.

    If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

    The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

    If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

    Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

    Resolution source
    https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
    End date
    Jan 31, 2027, 00:00 UTC
  2. 1
    First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

    Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.

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