RulesWatch
Dashboard
PolymarketWorldTrading

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Part of Will Russia invade another country by...?
Open on Polymarket
Share
Post on X
Badge and embed Download history (JSON)
Yes price
4.5¢
checked
24h volume
$108
dollars traded
Ends
Jan 1, 2027
Recorded changes
0
tracked since Oct 31

Yes price and rules edits

Price history from Polymarket's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.
Yes price

Resolution

Trading
Ends Jan 1, 2027
Ended
Waiting for a proposal
Proposed
2 h to dispute on UMA
Resolved
Paid out

Checking the live resolution stage with Polymarket…

Rules history

removedadded
  1. 1
    Version 1, currentsince I first saw it,
    Read the current rules
    Question
    Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
    Rules

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

    For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

    The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

    End date
    Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC
  2. 1
    First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

    Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.

Clarifications posted elsewhere

Polymarket sometimes posts a clarification on Discord or X before it edits the market, or without editing it. No API carries those. Link one here and everyone watching gets an alert.

No links added.