Will Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 2 days ago
   Read the current rules

   Question

   Will Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?

   Rules

   This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

   Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

   A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
   * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
   * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
   * Being formally booked or processed following detention
   * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
   * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
   * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

   The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
   * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
   * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
   * Being named in an indictment without arrest

   The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

   End date

   Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.