Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?

Resolution

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1. 1
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   Question

   Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?

   Rules

   This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that subjects covered AI-chip exports to mandatory congressional review with a statutory blocking period is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

   Qualifying legislation includes the H.R. 6875 (119th) — “AI OVERWATCH Act.”

   Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".

   The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

   Resolution source

   https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22

   End date

   Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

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