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Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

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Yes price
9.5¢
checked
24h volume
$12k
dollars traded
Ends
Jan 1, 2028
Recorded changes
0
tracked since Oct 31

Yes price and rules edits

Price history from Polymarket's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.
Yes price

Resolution

Trading
Ends Jan 1, 2028
Ended
Waiting for a proposal
Proposed
2 h to dispute on UMA
Resolved
Paid out

Checking the live resolution stage with Polymarket…

Rules history

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  1. 1
    Version 1, currentsince I first saw it,
    Read the current rules
    Question
    Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
    Rules

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

    Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

    The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

    End date
    Jan 1, 2028, 04:59 UTC
  2. 1
    First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

    Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.

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