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Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?

Part of Will any country leave NATO by...?
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Yes price
3.2¢
checked
24h volume
$177
dollars traded
Ends
Jan 1, 2027
Recorded changes
0
tracked since Oct 31

Yes price and rules edits

Price history from Polymarket's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.
Yes price

Resolution

Trading
Ends Jan 1, 2027
Ended
Waiting for a proposal
Proposed
2 h to dispute on UMA
Resolved
Paid out

Checking the live resolution stage with Polymarket…

Rules history

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  1. 1
    Version 1, currentsince I first saw it,
    Read the current rules
    Question
    Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
    Rules

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

    A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

    A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution.

    The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    End date
    Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC
  2. 1
    First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

    Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.

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