Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Resolution

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1. 2
   Version 2, currentsince 10 h ago
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   Question

   Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

   Rules

   Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

   This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

   If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

   If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

   This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.

   This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

   Resolution source

   https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page

   End date

   Oct 28, 2026, 03:59 UTC

   UMA resolution status

   proposed

2. 1
   Outcome proposedEdited between 19:54 and 22:10 UTC (2.3 h window)Yes0¢→0¢
   UMA resolution status

   proposed

   Resolution steps changed from none to proposed.

   Full diff, share, rate
   Read version 1, the rules before this edit

   Question

   Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

   Rules

   Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

   This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

   If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

   If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

   This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.

   This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

   Resolution source

   https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page

   End date

   Oct 28, 2026, 03:59 UTC

3. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.