Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Resolution

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1. 2
   Version 2, currentsince 3 h ago
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   Question

   Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

   Rules

   This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

   A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.

   A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

   Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.

   Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.

   If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.

   The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

   End date

   Nov 1, 2026, 03:59 UTC

   UMA resolution status

   proposed

2. 1
   Outcome proposedEdited between 02:55 and 05:00 UTC (2.1 h window)Yes0¢→0¢
   UMA resolution status

   proposed

   Resolution steps changed from none to proposed.

   Full diff, share, rate
   Read version 1, the rules before this edit

   Question

   Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

   Rules

   This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

   A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.

   A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

   Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.

   Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.

   If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.

   The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

   End date

   Nov 1, 2026, 03:59 UTC

3. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.