Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 2 days ago
   Read the current rules

   Question

   Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

   Rules

   This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

   Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.

   For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.

   Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.

   Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.

   Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

   End date

   Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC

   UMA resolution status

   proposed, then disputed, then proposed, then disputed

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.