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China ballistic missile launch by December 31?

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Yes price
—
read on the next check
24h volume
—
dollars traded
Ends
Jan 1, 2027
Recorded changes
0
tracked since Oct 31

Yes price and rules edits

Price history from Polymarket's public API. Each numbered marker is an edit; point at it to read it.
Yes price

Resolution

Trading
Ends Jan 1, 2027
Ended
Waiting for a proposal
Proposed
2 h to dispute on UMA
Resolved
Paid out

Checking the live resolution stage with Polymarket…

Rules history

removedadded
  1. 1
    Version 1, currentsince I first saw it,
    Read the current rules
    Question
    China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
    Rules

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

    Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.

    Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

    The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

    End date
    Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC
  2. 1
    First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

    Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.

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