Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?

Resolution

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1. 1
   Version 1, currentsince I first saw it, 2 days ago
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   Question

   Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?

   Rules

   NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened.

   This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

   Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked.

   For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

   If a member state only expresses intent to or is considering invoking Article 4, that alone does not suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

   The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO; authoritative statements from the requesting member government may also be used.

   End date

   Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC

2. 1
   First recordedOct 31, 2026, 09:06 UTC

   Saved in my first snapshot of every open market. Neither venue keeps older versions, so nothing before this exists.